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Update on Hurricane Michael - October 10, 2018
Update on Hurricane Michael - October 10, 2018
Southeast River Forecast Center

Keys Points

  • Intense rain and wind from Hurricane Michael are battering the Gulf Coast today as the eye of the storm approaches.
  • Heavy rain ahead of the storm along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina and tapering off as it moves inland. Enhanced rainfall totals along the Appalachians in North and South Carolina.
  • Location and magnitude of rainfall will be closely associated with the path. Dangerous flash flooding is likely in areas along that path of this quickly moving storm.
  • Widespread flooding along the path in the southeast U.S. with increasing threat of significant flooding in the Carolinas and Virginia.

Hurricane Michael

Hurricane Michael

Hurricane Michael is currently a strong high end category four hurricane near the Gulf Coast. The storm will continue moving north and will weaken after it makes land fall later today.

Flash flooding along the path of the storm is the greatest flood threat at this time. The fast forward speed of the storm will help to keep rain totals from significant long term accumulations. However, in areas of intense rainfall and repeated bands of rain, river flooding is possible.

An increased threat of moderate and major flooding in the Carolinas and Virginia as intense heavy rain falls on wet soils and already above normal river levels.

24-hour Precipitaion 

Hurricane Michael

Here is our 24 – hour precipitation ending at 12 pm EDT. Heavy rainfall ahead of landfall along the Georgia and South Carolina coast and tapering off as it moves inland. Also mountain induced rainfall in western North and South Carolina.

These rainfall totals will be used in the SERFC forecast model and replacing the rainfall forecasts and the uncertainty that goes along with them in the coming days.

Days 1 - 2 Rainfall Forecast 

Hurricane Michael

This is the 48-hour rainfall forecast that was used in the SERFC hydrologic model forecast this morning.

48-hour Rainfall Forecast from WPC - AL, GA, FL

Hurricane Michael

Here is a close up look at the 48 hour rainfall forecast with a SERFC forecast points layer.

We already have heavy rain moving into the panhandle of Florida. Numerous minor and moderate flood forecasts in the area of anticipated heavy rainfall. Currently, on one SERFC forecast point is expected to reach major flood stage. As rain totals replace rainfall forecasts, these forecast could change.

Please check back to the SERFC site often for updates to the forecasts.

48-hour Rainfall Forecast from WPC - NC and SC

Hurricane Michael

Here is a close up look at the 48 hour rainfall forecast with a SERFC forecast points layer.

Many of the areas that are getting hit by Hurricane Michael also felt the impact of Hurricane Florence. Because these areas were already wet and rivers above normal for this time of year, it will not take as much rain for these forecasts to return to flood stage. Numerous points are forecast to exceed moderate flood stage with two currently expected to exceed major. Please check back often for updates.

Latest on Current River Conditions

Hurricane Michael

There are currently one SERFC point above flood stage in the area. The Waccamaw River at Conway is still in flood associated with rain from Hurricane Florence.

All of the other flood forecasts shown on our RFC Conditions graphic are forced by the 48-hour rainfall forecast.

Check back often for changes to river forecasts as forecasted rainfall changes and water begins to actually hit the ground.

Days 3 Rainfall Forecast

Hurricane Michael

Here is the rainfall forecast from 8 am Friday through 8 am on Saturday.

Rain associated with Hurricane Michael have moved out of the area except for South Florida.


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